Thursday, October 25, 2012

Winning the Battle But Losing the War?

Now that the race is neck and neck, with real clear politics giving Romney a narrow edge in the popular vote and Obama the edge in electoral votes, if we discount battleground states, the likelihood of Obama being dethroned is a possibility; though I have always maintained that if it were Ron Paul versus Barack Obama the election would have been decided months ago, and a republican victory a foregone conclusion in a 1980s style electoral landslide.  However, Obama has shown us that hope and wishes do not make something into reality, so let us continue in reality.

The republicans will absolutely remain in control of the house at the end of this election cycle.  They also stand a chance of gaining the senate, though I am pretty sure the senate will remain in the control of the blue party. As for Romney, here is the electoral map at Rasmussen which shows Obama with 237 electoral votes to Romney's 235 and 66 toss ups, meaning 7 states are in play.

Of those 7 states Colorado and Virginia look like they will go to Romney, giving him 21 needed electoral votes, and that would bring his total to 257; just 13 shy needed to win. Rasmussen shows Romney winning by 2% of the popular vote in New Hampshire, though Real Clear Politics shows Obama up by a small margin.  Assuming that it goes to Romney his total electoral count would go to 261. Meaning if he wins Wisconsin then he wins the day without the much vaunted Ohio.

But Romney probably won't win Wisconsin based of the the the current  polls I have seen; though to be fair there are instances were the polls can be very off like in 2010. A 2% chance is pretty large, so baring a major stumble by Obama and Romney, not outside the realm of possibility, I think that state will go to Obama.  Likewise Nevada looks like it will tilt towards Obama.  However if Romney won both Nevada and Iowa he would still win, despite losing Ohio.  Yet the surest bet at this point is that Romney needs Ohio.  If Romney wins Ohio, with its 18 electoral votes then the only other battle ground state he would need to take, outside of Virginia, would be New Hampshire, or Colorado.  Colorado will probably go to Romney, so if Romney wins Ohio, he pretty much is guaranteed the election.

But that is neither here nor there for me. I am not a polster so my guesses are nothing more than lazily thrown darts, and I have no bone in this race as I am not voting for Obama or Romney; OK I lied, there is a small bone for me. I would derive some small temporary pleasure from the gnashing of teeth from my blue blooded friends and the pathetic cries of racism by certain public figures and talking heads.  I personally bear no ill-will towards Obama as he was no different than Bush, Clinton, Gore, or McCain, or even Romney, but I am exceedingly tired of the cult of Obama that has been perpetuated ever since he won his senate seat all those years ago (I wonder if opponents to Scipio Africanus were also tired of the cult of personality that surrounded him those many thousands of years ago?).

I will also attest to being some what concerned. In my eyes, Romney is really no different than Obama, if perhaps more competent. I know all too well that the president has very little power to make major changes to policy. Domestically the power resides in congress, as the constitution intended, to pass laws and decide the course of the country. And internationally, whatever the president may wish, his actions are constrained by realpolitik. At the beginning of his term Obama wished to reset the relations with the world, and look what has happened, his policies have differed very little from Bush; who himself had expressed a desire to move away from nation building and world policing when he ran for office. 

The most a president could do domestically is make it harder for bad laws to pass, via their presidential veto, and small changes in foreign policy.  Ron Paul would have done this. I am not so foolish enough to think that all our military bases, or military treaties, and clandestine activities would come to an end. Yet, he would move slightly that direction and the most egregious actions and superfluous bases would probably have been closed. Obama and Romney will do none of that. And Romney will not use his veto power to help reign in congress, I have seen or read nothing that indicates that he would.  Don't be fooled by his selection of Paul Ryan; he is a fiscal welter weight compared to either Paul the older or younger.

So here we stand, the republicans have picked a presidential ticket, that in my mind, will do nothing to stop our descent into fiscal and economic madness.  There is no way that what we are doing can continue to go on for another 4 years.  Japan may have gotten away with 20 years of propping up a deck of cards, but that was done with an economically strong Europe, China, and America willing to play ball.  There is no one capable, or even willing at this point, that can keep the charade going.  We will redescened into recession, there will be a major global currency crisis, we will have to pay the piper.  If I had thought Romney could have forestayed, or even lessened, the coming pain I would have voted for him; but he won't, so I won't. My greatest fear at this point, is that the republicans have won the battle, but ultimately lost the war for us.

People will blame Romney and the republicans for the next saga of our crisis. They will utter lines about failed policies of the past, leftist policies but leftists won't tell you that, and blame free markets. We defenders of liberty, who have seen small gains these past few decades, will be forced to defend what little we have.  I fear there is a very real possibility of a quickened descent away from free markets into Argentinian or Greek style democracy.

So even if Romeny wins don't breath a sigh of relief, rather, batten down the hatches and prepare to argue more voraciously against the economic foolishness we are witnessing. We cannot go the way the anti-war movement did when Obama won.  Now if Obama wins then we are in a much better position to argue for the cause of freedom once everything goes down. But if Romney wins, well, sharpen your swords, string your arrows, and ready the dogs of war.






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Seattle resident whose real name is Kevin Daniels. This blog covers the following topics, libertarian philosophy, realpolitik, western culture, history and the pursuit of truth from the perspective of a libertarian traditionalist.