STRATFOR: Analysis Of The Changing Geopolitical Enviroment

Strafor has a well done article (free at the moment) George Freedom talks about the shifting geopolitical landscape. The only major quible I would make is that I think they underestimate the problems facing the United States:

The United States has a modestly growing economy and, rhetoric aside, does not face existential political problems. Where the European Union's survival is in serious question and the ability of China to resume its rate of growth is in doubt, the United States does not face a political crisis on the same order as the other two. The fiscal cliff is certainly there, but given American political culture, all crises signify the apocalypse. It is much easier to imagine a solution to the United States' immediate political problems than it is to imagine how Europe or China would solve their challenges.

 

I do think the US faces anexistential political problem, and in fact George Friedman has written in the past that he is concerned about the future of the republic.  The geopolitical entity that is America will survive, unless individuals like Vox are right about demographic infighting tearing apart the nation which is something I still haven't made my mind up on, but the republic is in grave danger. Even so, outside of concerns about demographics and possible balkanization, the prognosis doesn't change from what George Friedman has predicted in my opinion.

We have written extensively on why we think the European and Chinese crises are insoluble, and I won't repeat that here. What I am saying is not that Europe or China will disappear into a black hole but that each will change its behavior substantially. Europe will not become a united entity but will return to the pursuit of the interests of individual nations, though still in a wealthy continent. China will continue to be a major economic power, but its term as the leading growth engine in the world will end, causing institutional crises. Again, these powers will not fall off the map, but they will radically change their behaviors and expectations.

Since power is relative, this leaves the United States with no significant challenger for international primacy, not because the United States is particularly successful but because others are even less so. The United States has a decision to make right now. As the leading power, should it attempt to preserve the political order that has existed for the past 20 years or allow it to pass into history? Perhaps a better question to ask is whether the United States has the power to preserve a united Europe and a high-growth China, and if so, is the current configuration of the world worth preserving from the U.S. point of view?

The US will continue to be the worlds dominant power, but not because of excellence, but because of global weakness.  All in all it is a great article and I suggest that you read it before it is no longer available without charge.  Geopolitics matters and individuals should take care to educate themselves on what makes a nation, and why nations do what they do. Otherwise predictions on what will happen geopolitically on ideological world views, Arab Spring, Libya, Soviet Union, etc, and look how often those are wrong.

Culture of Corruption

With the news of generals, and former generals, being investigated or forced to resign, this new bit of news could make one suspect that there is a giant cleaning house going on.  However, considering the reason for demotion and forced retirement, abuse of government accounts, I suspect that this is as exactly as it appears.  Now this doesn't mean that the government isn't making an example of someone, governments with corruption problems often do, but it is hard to feel sympathy for an individual who used government resources to shuttle his wife around for a shopping trip.

I, and I suspect many Americans, are no longer surprised or even shocked by this kind of thing, we've had a senator who, may have, participated in a scheme with a now imprisoned Governor so he could achieve a Senate seat he would never win in an election, a congressmen who was found to have tens of thousands of dollars in bribe money in his freezer, An New York Attorney General who visited prostitutes, all the while vigorously prosecuting men who visited prostitutes, A South Carolina Governor who disappeared to his Mistress in Brazil, Of course Illinois has had 4 governors go to prison for corruption; forgive me for being cruel but the state is getting exactly what it deserves in terms of economic malaise, a senator convicted for corruption, a congressman who is suspected of abusing campaign finances, and the list goes on and on regardless of party affiliation.

But what should be really troubling is that it was a career military officer, and not a civilian politician, and the type of punishment he received.  Firstly, for the punishment, it was far too light.  Yes it is light because, if the government was trying to make an example of someone, it might not want to have been too harsh for fear of exposing more corruption. The fact that a senior military official was abusing government resources, period not just in a time of crisis, is unacceptable. This isn't a mistake due to human error, it is abuse of power. If these allegations are true, then he should have been forced out of the military with a dishonorable discharge. Instead he will get a pension for over $200,000 a year.

Secondly, this is a senior military official! Corruption is bad enough in civilian government, it is deadly in a nations military. Remember, it was a corrupt military officers, in Rome they were also politicians, Marius, Sulla, and Caesar who each dealt blows to the republic until it could stand no more. When Octavius became Caesar Augustus the regime he ushered in still bore the trappings of a republic, but he was a strongman, an enlightened strongman but a strongman nonetheless, since the military was constitutionally put undo his control. The republic was replaced with a military regimes, and all totalitarian, many pre-enlightened era monarchies, and most empires, are military regimes. The Caesars first priority became the military, military, and the military. 

This may not seem like anything too alarming, but it really is, and it leaves a sinking feeling in my stomach. The military is one of the few institutions that Americans have any respect for, civil government, the school system, and law enforcement having lost much of their credibility long ago. The military is also the only institution that could radically change how this country works. If enough officers decided, tomorrow, that they wanted to overthrow the civilian government, well there is nothing we could do to stop them; and I have a feeling many Americans would cheer the move on. But an institution that is becoming corrupt, while still maintaining respect with the populace, and holds a lot of power? Well that is a very volatile mix.

Venezuela's Geographic Challenge

Another video by Strafor.  This one on Venezuela. One thing that I took away from these videos is that it drastically alters my perception on what the nation actually looks like.  Most of Venezuela's population hugs the coast, the purple colored areas, and what infrastructure exists in the interior is mostly there to service the Orinoco Basin oil fields.  This means that of the southern portion of the country is a buffer zone, much like the United States. However, unlike the United States, which now has a substantial population living in its buffer regions, few Venezuelans live there. However, considering how sparsely populated the Amazon Basin is there is little risk for Venezuela's highlands for being taken or unduly influenced. Anyways, enjoy the video.

Better Use of 25 Grand then College

This kid is smart, and frankly, probably doesn't need to go to college given that he came up with a cheap and easy way to signify if a football athelete has possibly sustained a concussison.  Twenty five thousand should be enough to file a patent and even get started on created a commercial application for these things.

Over the Fiscal Cliff

As Mr. Paul Rightly says, we are already over the fiscal cliff. We know get to sit and unwatch what unfolds and I suspect it will be much like watching the Hindenburg.